Public scorecard
Blind predictions against published failure data
Each prediction is logged with its rule and error band before the published outcome is looked up. Misses stay on the board with the cause and the change made to the rule.
updated 2026-09-04
42
Blind predictions logged
since 2026-06-01
36 / 42
Within stated error band
86 % hit rate
0.18
Mean absolute log error
dex, life metrics
11
Published failure datasets
4 mechanisms
By mechanism
TBC spallation12 / 14
Braze joint fracture8 / 9
Barrier breakthrough9 / 11
Interlayer delamination7 / 8
Datasets
| Id | Dataset | Mechanism | Hits | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DS01 | EB-PVD 7YSZ furnace cycling, 1 150 °C | TBC spallation | 7 / 8 | Evans and Hutchinson 2007; Vassen et al. 2008 |
| DS02 | APS YSZ burner rig, 1 250 °C | TBC spallation | 5 / 6 | Traeger et al. 2003 |
| DS03 | Al2O3 to Kovar active braze, 4-point bend | Braze joint fracture | 5 / 5 | Xian 1993; Do Nascimento 2003 |
| DS04 | Si3N4 to steel, Ag-Cu-Ti interlayers | Braze joint fracture | 3 / 4 | Zhong 2010 |
| DS05 | Cr and Al2O3 hydrogen barriers, gas permeation | Barrier breakthrough | 6 / 7 | Causey 2012; Nemanic 2019 |
| DS06 | Fe-Al aluminide permeation, 300 to 600 °C | Barrier breakthrough | 3 / 4 | Levchuk 2004 |
| DS07 | Mo and W thin-film delamination on sapphire | Interlayer delamination | 4 / 5 | Kawwam 2026, Paper 3 |
| DS08 | TiN on steel, scratch adhesion | Interlayer delamination | 3 / 3 | Bull 1997 |
Prediction log
| Id | Date | Dataset | Quantity | Predicted, band | Observed | Rule | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P001 | 2026-06-02 | DS01 | cycles to spallation | 1 240 (900 to 1 700) | 1 340 | R14 | within band |
| P002 | 2026-06-02 | DS01 | cycles to spallation | 610 (420 to 880) | 560 | R14 | within band |
| P003 | 2026-06-04 | DS02 | cycles to spallation | 310 (190 to 500) | 720 | R16 | miss |
| P004 | 2026-06-11 | DS03 | fracture load, N | 215 (170 to 260) | 232 | R09 | within band |
| P005 | 2026-06-11 | DS03 | fracture load, N | 118 (90 to 150) | 104 | R09 | within band |
| P006 | 2026-06-19 | DS05 | breakthrough time, h | 36 (22 to 60) | 41 | R21 | within band |
| P007 | 2026-06-19 | DS05 | breakthrough time, h | 1 800 (1 000 to 3 200) | 640 | R22 | miss |
| P008 | 2026-07-03 | DS06 | permeation reduction factor | 420 (250 to 700) | 380 | R23 | within band |
| P009 | 2026-07-15 | DS07 | pulses to barrier breach | 1 (1 to 2) | 1 | R22 | within band |
| P010 | 2026-07-15 | DS07 | interface stress, GPa | 0.63 (0.55 to 0.72) | 0.66 | R05 | within band |
| P011 | 2026-08-06 | DS04 | fracture load, N | 88 (65 to 115) | 142 | R10 | miss |
| P012 | 2026-08-22 | DS08 | critical load, N | 31 (24 to 40) | 34 | R11 | within band |
Misses and what changed
P003
Burner-rig thermal gradient not represented; R16 assumed isothermal furnace cycling.
Gradient term added to R16 on 2026-06-20; prediction retained as a miss.
P007
Barrier grain size taken from deposition literature (60 nm); measured value was 18 nm.
R22 now requires a measured grain size or reports the prior width explicitly.
P011
Residual stress relief by Ag-Cu plasticity under-estimated.
R10 plasticity cap under review; open item.